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Today's wisdom:
Chinese seal character: SAN JUN KE DUO SHUAI YE,PI FU BU KE DUO ZHI YE
An army may be deprived of its commanding officer, but a man cannot be deprived of his will. --Kongzi(Confucian) China 10 Economy Forecast in 2007
1.Consumption: 2007 total retail sales of consumer goods will increase about 12.5% 2007, consumer demand trends will still shows expansion, mainly due to :
2.Price: 2007 CPI(consumer price index) will rise about 2%, higher than this year In 2007 purchase price increase breadth of raw materials, fuel, power will drop. It is estimated to rise around 4.5% for the whole year; Ex-factory price index of industrial product will rise 2%. Industrial consumable price may drop. Service price increase breadth will remain roughly similar to that in 2006,but food price increase breadth may be higher. So, overall influence may made consumable price's increase breadth higher than that in 2006 but not very high. In addition, according to the experience since 1995 that the consumer price leaded index six months ahead,there will be a slight increase in consumer price from after the fourth quarter of 2006 to mid-2007. Consumer price's increase breadth for the second half of 2007 will return. However, the annual consumer price's increase breadth in 2007 will be higher than that in 2006. 3.International Trade: 2007 the trade surplus is expected to reach 175 billion U.S. dollars In 2007 there will be a noticeable decline in the growth rates of import and export,down to 17% and 15% respectively. Import and export growth rate will tend to more even. However, the trade surplus will be hard to appear clearly narrowing. Overall trade surplus will get to about 220 billion U.S. dollars, increasing nearly 50 billion U.S. dollars than 2006. Promoting foreign trade balance becomes important issue of achieving sustained and stable economic development. Observation of 2006, China's export growth remained steady, import growth accelerated, commodity structure of foreign trade further optimized, international payment imbalances have intensified. The total import and export volume is expected to hit 1.76 trillion U.S. dollars, with trade surplus of about 150 billion U.S. dollars. 4.Investment: 2007 short-term disturbance will intensify investment growth uncertainty Disturbance by short-term factors, the growth of investment in fixed assets in 2007 will lower four percentage than that in 2006,dropping to 20%; Giving a prospect of 2007, the world economic adjustment, monetary tightening, the reducing growth of inflow foreign capital investment and other factors will increase the uncertainty of investment growth. Taking a retrospect of 2006, under influence of short term factors such as better world economic situation than expected, domino effect of government full due change, sufficient money supply and rise of enterprise benefit, China's fixed asset investment continued to achieve high growth. Meanwhile, the investment structure got optimized, bottleneck industry strengthened, domestic loan and enterprise self-financing being increased, real estate investment growing steadily. However, contradictions and problems are still outstanding. They are the excessive scale of investment, low efficiency of investment, serious irregular construct in some industries, and overcapacity of production. 5.Regional Economy : Metropolitan circle main economic status is further highlighted In 2007 under the influence of regional economic integration,the main economic status of metropolitan circle will be further highlighted ,and infrastructure investment in big cities will increase substantially, pulling the GDP rate of big cities. Regional economic development trend in 2007 : the process of regional economic integration will be further accelerated , difference of regional economic development showing trend of expansion. Industrial structure and growth pattern in developed region will change, and the leading position of the Metropolitan Circle and City Group will be further highlighted. Metropolitan Circle's role on economic social will be strengthened, and will become the strongest and most vibrant economy system. Major cities will substantially increase investment in infrastructure, which would push up the rate of GDP, increasing its proportion of GDP.
6.Industrial Economy: consumption upgrade precursor industry will lead prosperity indicator rise In 2007, China's industrial growth remained strong inner motivation. Although many industries' growth will be slowdown affected by the economic downturn,adjustment will be more moderate. Overall performance characteristic of is faster growth steadily. China's economy is still in a up stage of a fairly long cycle. Although the actual economic growth rate will decline for some time in the future,the downward movement will not be too large under the support of the basic growth forces in the medium to long term. Among the last 10 industries of the industry comprehensive competitive rankings,four sectors belong to the heavy chemical industry, namely : oil processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry, chemical fiber manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical materials and chemical products industry. 7.Fiscal policy: 2007 fiscal increase rate will get to about 14%, lower than 2006 2007 Fiscal deficit will decrease than that in 2006, and the deficit rate will continue to decline. In 2007 in order to consolidate and develop the results of macro regulation and control,and to achieve economy growth in a sustainable, rapid and coordinated, on one hand, China government should intensify the reform on the system level, focusing on the adjustment of economic structure and changing the mode of economic growth, improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth, and striving to resolve the issue of people's livelihood. On the other hand, China government should continue to implement "double stable" fiscal policy and monetary policy on the short-term macro-control policy level, further improving the policy content, strengthening fiscal policy and monetary policy, industrial policy,land policy and social policy coordination, bring full play the unique function in aspect of promoting structural adjustment and reform policies. 8.Environment & resources: Investment in environmental management to GDP will reach 1.5%, increasing 0.2% than 2005 As long coarse model economic growth, though there is steady increase investment in the ecological environment, consumption to resources caused by economic growth already surpass ecological environment's carrying capacity and the self-recovery capability. China's ecological environment is in the situation of "partial improvement and overall deterioration" . The ability to damage the ecological environment can not catch up speed of consuming resources. Ecological deficit continues to grow. In 2005 China"s overall sulfur dioxide emission increased 27% than that in 2000 , only reducing 2% on chemical oxygen demand, not completing control objective 10% cut on the "10th five-year" plan. With the development of economic globalization, environmental issues have become an important factor in the future of influencing world order and national security and development. In the future, international pressure will continue to increase for China on this aspect.It will become 2007's important policy task for the governments at all levels to complete the annual target of energy saving ,cost reduction and emission control, and macro-control policy will fully reflect this requirement. 9.Security: A-share structure's bull market has about 20 to 30% increase Structural bull market in 2007 will be the main theme of the development of the A-share market. The major indexes will reach new high repeatedly. Refinancing scale level will reach 390 billion yuan for the whole year, but shares price structure adjustment of the listed company will be more fierce. 10.Finance: M2 will increase by 16%, local currency will appreciate by 3% or 4%. 2007 it should continue to adhere to the "steady" monetary policy ,maintaining appropriate control to the credit, strengthening structural control, continue to implement "maintain some while pressure some", strengthening the guide to loan demand sid, strengthening liquidity management.
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